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96楼
发表于 2012-4-16 15:17
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The purging of Bo Xilai, until recently the popular party chief of Chongqing, makes for riveting drama. The Communist party, hoping to engineer a smooth, once-in-a-decade leadership transition, has been forced to air its filthy laundry in public. One of its rising stars, a “princeling” seemingly destined to become a member of the nine-member standing committee, is blamed for serious, unspecified, breaches of party discipline. His wife stands accused of murder.
从重庆市委书记、政治明星到被整肃者,薄熙来的经历可以改编成一出引人入胜的戏剧。中共原本希望十年一度的领导层更迭平稳运行,如今却被迫把不那么光鲜的内部整肃暴露给公众。党内一颗冉冉升起的政治明星、原本似乎铁定会成为中央政治局常委九人之一的“太子党”,如今被定性为严重违纪,具体违纪原因不详。她的妻子涉嫌谋杀。
This is deeply embarrassing for a party that likes to project an image of unity and probity. It is possible that the Communist party leadership will see it as a victory. It has, after all, neutralised a popular politician who sought legitimacy not through party organs but by appealing directly to the public. For an organisation that thrives on discipline and the myth of infallibility that was dangerous indeed.
对一个喜欢展现团结、正派形象的政党而言,薄熙来事件令它非常难堪。不过,中共领导人可能会视其为一场胜利。毕竟,它让一名不通过党组织、而直接取悦于民众来寻求执政合法性的政治明星的努力白费。对一个靠纪律和永不犯错的神话发展壮大起来的政党而言,这种做法确实危险。
Yet the very public purge is deeply problematic. If Mr Bo had merely been a dangerous outlier, the leadership could have quietly sidelined him by not selecting him for the standing committee next autumn. That they felt obliged to remove him so publicly suggests a deep schism at the very top.
然而,这种高度公开化的整肃存在很大的问题。如果薄熙来只是一个危险的局外人,中共领导层本可以悄悄地让他靠边站——只要不在今年秋季的中央政治局常委选举中选他就行了。他们觉得有必要如此公开地罢黜薄熙来,显示中共最高层存在深刻分歧。
Having dispensed with Mr Bo, the transition may be back on track. Xi Jinping and Li Keqiang may well now take up their positions as president and premier respectively. Yet that is not assured. If, as seems likely, deep ideological and factional fissures remain, there could be more drama between now and October.
处理了薄熙来之后,中共的权力过渡可能重回正轨。习近平和李克强可能将分别顺利接任中国国家主席和总理的职位。但还不能完全肯定。如果深刻的意识形态和派系分歧仍未消除(事实似乎如此),从现在到10月之间可能还有更多戏剧上演。
In some senses, the Bo affair has blown the lid off party secrecy. But in another, it has highlighted just what an arcane outfit it remains. Who caused Mr Bo’s downfall and why? Was it Wen Jiabao, the premier, who drove the final nail into Mr Bo’s political coffin? Did he do so because Mr Bo had challenged the party through populist policies, or because his “anti-mafia” campaign had overstepped legal bounds? Or was it just because his wife allegedly bumped off a British businessman? The fact that we have no real answers to such questions proves how unaccountable the Communist party still is.
从某种意义上来说,薄熙来事件捅破了中共的秘密。但从另一个角度来看,它也凸显出这个政党仍然十分神秘。是谁导致了薄熙来的倒台,原因又是什么?终结薄熙来政治生命的最后一根稻草是总理温家宝放上去的吗?温家宝这样做,是因为薄熙来通过民粹主义政策对中共构成了挑战,还是因为他的“打黑”行动僭越法律?抑或只是因为薄熙来的妻子涉嫌杀害一名英国商人?我们无法肯定地回答这些问题,而这恰恰证明,中共仍然让人说不清道不明。
Advocates of the Beijing consensus had portrayed the Chinese leadership as competent and technocratic. The party was, so the theory went, increasingly rules-based and rational. It was subject to periodic, well-ordered transitions of power. That view looks increasingly naive. If we thought the Communist party was stable, we should think again. Just how opaque an organisation it remains was revealed in the extraordinary explanations of the purge it has sought to foist on an increasingly savvy, wired-up public. Hundreds of millions of people with access to microblogging sites have been speculating about the affair for months with surprising accuracy.
鼓吹“北京共识”的人将中国领导层描绘为一群富有能力的技术官僚。他们还认为,中共正变得越来越讲规则,越来越理性。中共的权力更迭已开始定期、有序地进行。但这个观点如今越来越显得幼稚。如果我们曾有过“中共很稳定”的看法,我们应反思。中共试图用极不寻常的理由向民众解释对薄熙来的整肃,而民众现在已越来越聪明、消息也越来越灵通。中共这种做法显示出它仍然多么令人捉摸不透。几个月以来,上亿人在微博上猜测这一事件,而他们的猜测准确得惊人。
In the internet age, the party has lost its ability to settle internal affairs behind closed doors. It has tried to present the downfall of Mr Bo as proof that no one is above the law. It is a nice thought. Instead, the antics of Mr Bo only bolster popular belief in the fabulous wealth and sense of impunity those in the upper echelons of power enjoy.
在网络时代,中共已无法继续关起门来处理内部事务。中共试图用薄熙来的倒台证明:没有人能超越法律。这个想法不错。然而,薄熙来的种种哗众取宠只不过进一步加深了公众的这样一个看法:身处权力金字塔顶端的人拥有巨额财富,即便违法也可以不受追究。
Mr Bo’s Harrow, Oxford and Harvard-educated son became notorious for driving a red Ferrari, symbolising the ostentation and sense of entitlement of the “princelings”. But no one can seriously believe Mr Bo and his family are the only offenders. Many sons and daughters of the party elders, including members of the current leadership, have parlayed their connections into fabulous wealth.
在哈罗公学(Harrow)、牛津大学(Oxford)和哈佛大学(Harvard)受过教育的薄熙来之子,因开一辆红色法拉利(Ferrari)而备受争议,人们认为他过于张扬,对自己“太子党”的身份感到洋洋自得。但没人相信只有薄熙来及其家人招来了愤怒。许多中共元老(包括现任领导人)的子女都利用他们的人脉获得了惊人的财富。
What are the lessons the party could sensibly draw? First, it should ensure that the trial of Gu Kailai, Mr Bo’s wife, is open and transparent. Unfortunately, there is little chance of that. Yet the more this resembles a political witch-hunt and the less a proper criminal investigation, the worse it will be for the party’s image. Second, it ought to spell out what Mr Bo did wrong. If the party has reason to believe his drive against crime and corruption in Chongqing overstepped the mark, it should explain why it did nothing to stop him at the time.
理性地看,中共可能从事件中得到一些怎样的教训?首先,它应保证薄熙来之妻谷开来的审判过程公开、透明。不幸的是,这种可能性微乎其微。不过,这一过程越像一种政治上的“猎巫”、刑事调查越不恰当,对中共形象的影响就越恶劣。其次,中共应明确说明薄熙来的过错。如果中共确实有理由认为,薄熙来在重庆打击犯罪和反腐行动超越了法律界限,它应解释为何当时没有采取任何行动予以制止。
Finally, the new leadership will have to address some of the issues Mr Bo brought to light. The Chongqing party chief was popular for a reason. His anti-corruption, anti-wealth gap, pro-environment policies may well have been deeply suspect. But they struck a chord with people and highlighted the terrible inadequacies of China’s unbalanced growth.
最后,新的中共领导层必须解决薄熙来事件暴露出来的一些问题。这位前重庆市委书记的高人气是有理由的。对他提出的反腐败、反贫富差距和保护环境的政策,人们或许有很深的怀疑。但这些政策确实触动了中国人的心弦,并凸显出中国的不均衡增长存在的严重不足。
The new party leadership will need to tackle those issues head-on if it hopes to regain the legitimacy badly damaged by the Bo affair. That will be the most difficult task of all.
薄熙来事件严重损害了中共的合法性,如果新的领导层希望保持合法性,他们必须毫不回避地解决上述问题。这将是他们面临的最艰巨任务。译者:何黎 |
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